GPHG 2026 winners: did the model call it?
Rexhep Rexhepi's Chronograph Flyback won the Aiguille d'Or at the 26th Grand Prix d'Horlogerie de Genève (GPHG) in Geneva on Saturday 7 November 2026. Our model called 4 of the 14 category prizes correctly, versus 2.3 for a blind guess.
Who won the GPHG 2026 prizes?
The official prize list names 20 prizes. Three brands took two each: Chopard (Time Only and Jewellery), Ferdinand Berthoud (Tourbillon and Chronometry) and Audemars Piguet (Calendar and Astronomy, and the Iconic Watch Prize). Konstantin Chaykin's ThinKing Mystery won the Audacity Prize and Dominique Renaud's Pulse60 Titanium Black the Horological Revelation Prize. The Special Jury Prize went to Patek Philippe for its Watch Art Grand Exhibition. Every winner is on the 2026 edition page.
How many winners did the model predict?
Four out of 14. The favourites that delivered were the Daniel Roth Extra Plat Rose Gold Skeleton in Essential (our model gave it a 58.5% chance of winning), the Blancpain Grande Double Sonnerie in Mechanical Exception (54.1%), the Audemars Piguet 150 Heritage in Calendar and Astronomy (39.8%) and the SpaceOne X Baltic Seconde Majeure in Challenge (33.8%). The model's 2026 predictions were frozen and committed before the ceremony, so nobody could move the goalposts.
That corresponds to an overall success rate of 29%. In its backtests of 2020 to 2025 the model averaged 33%, and a blind pick from six would be successful 17% of the time. A middling year, then, but still comfortably above chance.
The 2026 page on the GPHG Index shows 3 of 14, because it refits the model without 2026 and so swaps two favourites. This post uses the forecast frozen before the ceremony.
Where did the model go wrong?
Four winners came sixth of six in the model's ranking: Louis Vuitton in Artistic Crafts (6.3%), Parmigiani Fleurier in Chronograph (4.2%), Grand Seiko in Sports (4.5%) and Otsuka Lotec in Petite Aiguille (3.1%). Piaget's Swinging Pebble, the Gemset winner, sat fifth at 3.7%. Bulgari led three categories in our predictions but went home with nothing.
The Chronograph miss deserves an asterisk. The model's favourite there was the Rexhepi. The jury agreed, and then went further and gave it the Grand Prix, leaving the category prize to Parmigiani.
Did the Aiguille d'Or model see Rexhepi coming?
Hardly. The Grand Prix model scores brands on their prize record, as the methodology explains. Our archive credits the Rexhep Rexhepi name with no earlier GPHG prize, so the brand sat on the floor at 0.45%, tied 34th of 56 brands with 22 others. The favourite, Audemars Piguet at 9.5%, won two prizes on the night but missed the one that counted. The 2026 prize winners, as well as our database of all GPHG winners, is now up to date with the 2026 results.
Before the ceremony we looked at 25 years of GPHG results and at how the AI models picked their winners.
| Category | Winner | Model's pick (win probability) | Winner's probability and rank | Model right? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiguille d'Or | Rexhep Rexhepi Chronograph Flyback | Audemars Piguet, brand (9.5%) | 0.45%, tied 34th of 56 brands | No |
| Time Only | Chopard L.U.C 1860 | Bulgari Octo Finissimo 37 Satin-Polished Titanium (56.9%) | 29.0%, 2nd of 6 | No |
| Essential | Daniel Roth Extra Plat Rose Gold Skeleton | Daniel Roth Extra Plat Rose Gold Skeleton (58.5%) | 58.5%, 1st of 6 | Yes |
| Complication | Cleguer Inspiration One | Ulysse Nardin x URWERK UR-FREAK (40.3%) | 21.6%, 4th of 6 | No |
| Mechanical Exception | Blancpain Grande Double Sonnerie | Blancpain Grande Double Sonnerie (54.1%) | 54.1%, 1st of 6 | Yes |
| Gemset | Piaget Swinging Pebble | Bulgari Serpenti Aeterna (46.7%) | 3.7%, 5th of 6 | No |
| Tourbillon | Ferdinand Berthoud Chronomètre FB 2TV | Girard-Perregaux Laureato Fifty Three Gold Bridges (27.1%) | 24.2%, 3rd of 6 | No |
| Chronograph | Parmigiani Fleurier Tonda PF Chronographe Mystérieux | Rexhep Rexhepi Chronograph Flyback (25.2%) | 4.2%, 6th of 6 | No |
| Calendar and Astronomy | Audemars Piguet 150 Heritage | Audemars Piguet 150 Heritage (39.8%) | 39.8%, 1st of 6 | Yes |
| Sports | Grand Seiko Spring Drive U.F.A. Ushio 300 Diver | Chopard Zagato Lab One Concept (29.0%) | 4.5%, 6th of 6 | No |
| Jewellery | Chopard Mystery Nut | Dior Montres Dior Grand Bal Nuit des Indes (56.0%) | 35.6%, 3rd of 6 | No |
| Artistic Crafts | Louis Vuitton Tambour Taiko Arty Automata | Bulgari Serpenti Misteriosi (55.4%) | 6.3%, 6th of 6 | No |
| Petite Aiguille | Otsuka Lotec No.8 | Frédérique Constant Classic Worldtimer Manufacture (27.4%) | 3.1%, 6th of 6 | No |
| Challenge | SpaceOne X Baltic Seconde Majeure | SpaceOne X Baltic Seconde Majeure (33.8%) | 33.8%, 1st of 6 | Yes |
| Mechanical Clock | La Vallée Cosmo | L'Epée 1839 The Gekko (56.8%) | 22.5%, 3rd of 6 | No |
| Audacity | Konstantin Chaykin ThinKing Mystery | Not modelled | Not modelled | – |
| Horological Revelation | Dominique Renaud Pulse60 Titanium Black | Not modelled | Not modelled | – |
| Chronometry | Ferdinand Berthoud Naissance d'une Montre 3 | Not modelled | Not modelled | – |
| Iconic Watch | Audemars Piguet Royal Oak "Jumbo" Extra-thin Selfwinding Flying Tourbillon Chronograph RD#5 "150th Anniversary" | Not modelled | Not modelled | – |
| Special Jury | Patek Philippe, Watch Art Grand Exhibition | Not modelled | Not modelled | – |
| Scorecard | Result |
|---|---|
| Category prizes called by the model | 4 of 14 (29%) |
| Aiguille d'Or model's rank for Rexhep Rexhepi | Tied 34th of 56 brands (0.45%) |
A model that bets on brand history was always going to struggle with a watchmaker busy writing his own. Next year Rexhepi starts with a prize on the books.
Photo: © Fondation du Grand Prix d'Horlogerie de Genève