GPHG 2026: who will win the Aiguille d'Or? 25 years of results
The 2026 Grand Prix d'Horlogerie de Genève (GPHG) ceremony takes place on Saturday 7 November at the Bâtiment des Forces Motrices in Geneva, with 84 watches in the running. Our model trained on a database of every GPHG entry since 2001 gives Audemars Piguet the best chance of the Aiguille d'Or, at 9.5%. That is the favourite's chance, and it is low.
Watch prizes rarely get a betting market, which is a shame, because the arithmetic is good fun.
Who has won the Aiguille d'Or since 2001?
Twenty-five watches from 18 brands, according to the Aiguille d'Or archive.
| Years | Winners |
|---|---|
| 2001–2005 | Vacheron Constantin Lady Kalla, Patek Philippe 5102 Celestial, Patek Philippe 5101P, F.P. Journe Tourbillon Souverain, Vacheron Constantin Tour de l'Île |
| 2006–2010 | F.P. Journe Sonnerie Souveraine, Richard Mille RM 012, F.P. Journe Centigraphe Souverain, A. Lange & Söhne Zeitwerk, Greubel Forsey Double Tourbillon 30° |
| 2011–2015 | De Bethune DB28, TAG Heuer Mikrogirder, Girard-Perregaux Constant Escapement L.M., Breguet Classique Chronométrie, Greubel Forsey Tourbillon 24 Secondes Vision |
| 2016–2020 | Ferdinand Berthoud FB 1, Chopard L.U.C Full Strike, Bovet Récital 22, Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar Ultra-Thin, Piaget Altiplano Ultimate Concept |
| 2021–2025 | Bulgari Octo Finissimo, MB&F Legacy Machine Sequential Evo, Audemars Piguet Code 11.59 RD#4, IWC Portugieser Eternal Calendar, Breguet Classique Souscription 2025 |
What patterns do the winners show?
- A small club. F.P. Journe has won three times. Audemars Piguet, Breguet, Greubel Forsey, Patek Philippe and Vacheron Constantin have won twice each. Together those six brands took 13 of the 25 prizes.
- No back-to-back wins. Nobody has won in consecutive years since Patek Philippe in 2002 and 2003.
- A thin streak. Audemars Piguet's ultra-thin perpetual calendar (2019), the Piaget Altiplano (2020) and the Bulgari Octo Finissimo (2021) made three slim winners in a row. Heavy complications have returned since.
Who does the model favour in 2026?
Our Aiguille d'Or model scores each brand on its earlier prizes and Aiguille d'Or record. Audemars Piguet leads on 9.5%, ahead of Piaget (8.3%), Chopard (6.7%), Bulgari (6.2%), TAG Heuer (5.6%) and MB&F (4.5%). The percentages stay small because 84 watches share the pool.
Over 18 past editions the model placed the winner in its top five six times. Chance would manage about one. The methodology page shows the working. These are odds and the jury decides, so I also asked six AIs for their picks.
On Saturday evening we will find out whether history repeats itself. I would keep the champagne on ice until it does.